THE Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend six to nine months ahead, point to growth stabilising, albeit below long-term trends, in most advanced economies.
 
The CLIs continue to point to stable growth momentum in Japan, Canada and the euro area as a whole, including France and Italy. In the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom the signs of stabilisation, flagged in last month’s assessment, have been confirmed.
 
Among major emerging economies, stable growth momentum remains the assessment for Russia and China (for the industrial sector). Growth is expected to gain momentum in Brazil but the CLI for India continues to point to easing growth momentum.

The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.