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OECD headline inflation on slide despite rising foods prices
By TII News Service
May 09, 2025 , Paris

    
Untitled Document

YEAR-on-year inflation in the OECD as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to 4.2% in March 2025 from 4.5% in February, reaching its lowest level since July 2021. It declined in 18 of 38 OECD countries, with the largest falls (by around 1.0 percentage point [p.p.]) in Estonia, Hungary, Norway and Türkiye. Inflation rose in 7 countries and was stable or broadly stable in 13. Headline inflation in March was equal to or below 2.0% in 11 OECD countries, the same number as in February. It was lower than 1.0% in Finland, France, Sweden and Switzerland. Despite the slowdown in OECD headline inflation, average price levels across the OECD were 32.7% higher in March 2025 than they were in December 2019, prior to the onset of the COVID pandemic.

Year-on-year OECD food inflation rose to 4.8% in March from 4.4% in February, with increases in more than two-thirds of OECD countries, including Chile, Greece, the Netherlands and Türkiye where rises in food inflation reached 2.0 p.p. or more. This was outweighed by a fall in OECD energy inflation to 3.0% in March from 3.8% in February, with decreases in 28 OECD countries, and a small decline in OECD core inflation (inflation less food and energy) to 4.5% in March from 4.7% in February, reaching its lowest level since November 2021. 

Year-on-year inflation in the G7 fell to 2.4% in March from 2.7% in February. Headline inflation rose only in Italy driven primarily by increasing prices of non-regulated energy products. While energy and core inflation declined, G7 food inflation accelerated again year-on-year, with increases in Canada, Germany, France and the United States. Core inflation remained the primary driver of headline inflation across all G7 countries except Japan, where food inflation accounted for more than half of year-on-year headline inflation.

In the euro area, year-on-year inflation as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) remained broadly stable at 2.2% in March from 2.3% in February. A decline in energy prices and a slowdown in core inflation were partly offset by a rise in food inflation. Food inflation in France has been the lowest among euro area countries, while it has remained elevated in the Netherlands. In April 2025, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area year-on-year headline inflation remained stable, with another decline in energy inflation to minus 3.5% while core inflation is estimated to have risen to 2.7%.

In the G20, year-on-year inflation stood at 4.2% in March, broadly stable after 4.3% in February. Headline inflation stood close to zero in China, at minus 0.1%. It fell in South Africa, but rose in Brazil, India, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, and remained above 50% in Argentina.

 
 
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